Key Points
- Research suggests Trump and Musk’s claims of millions of dead people receiving Social Security benefits are exaggerated; evidence leans toward the number being in the thousands.
- It seems likely that the confusion stems from misinterpreting SSA database entries, where people listed as alive and over 100 are not necessarily receiving benefits.
- The SSA has systems to minimize improper payments, such as automatically stopping payments for those over 115 years old.
Claims and Context
Donald Trump and Elon Musk have claimed that millions of deceased individuals are receiving Social Security benefits, suggesting a significant issue with fraud or inefficiency. These statements have sparked public interest and concern about the management of Social Security funds.
Fact-Checking and Data
Fact-checking sources, including FactCheck.org, indicate that the actual number of improper payments to deceased individuals is much lower, likely in the thousands rather than millions. For instance, a 2015 SSA OIG report found about 1,500 such cases, totaling $31 million, which aligns with an average of around $20,667 per case, suggesting payments continued for about a year after death.
SSA Processes and Recent Developments
The SSA maintains a database of all issued Social Security numbers, and some entries lack death records, leading to them being listed as alive. However, this does not mean they are receiving benefits. The SSA has measures like automatic payment stops for those over 115 and regular checks against death records to prevent such issues. A recent Treasury Department pilot program prevented and recovered $31 million in improper payments over five months, indicating ongoing efforts to address the problem.
Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of Trump and Musk’s Claims on Social Security Payments to Deceased Individuals
This detailed analysis aims to thoroughly debunk the claims made by President Donald Trump and Elon Musk regarding Social Security payments to deceased individuals, providing a comprehensive overview based on available data and reports. The claims, which suggest millions of dead people are receiving benefits, have been widely discussed, and this note seeks to clarify the facts, explore the context, and highlight the implications for public understanding.
Background on the Claims
In recent public statements, Donald Trump claimed on February 18, 2025, that “millions and millions of people over 100 years old” may be receiving improper Social Security benefits, as reported by FactCheck.org. Elon Musk, in an X post on February 16, 2025, shared a chart suggesting millions of improbably old people were collecting benefits, implying massive fraud (Musk’s X post). These claims have fueled debates about the efficiency and integrity of the Social Security Administration (SSA).
Fact-Checking and Data Analysis
Fact-checking efforts, such as those by AP News, have debunked these claims, showing that the number of improper payments to deceased individuals is far smaller, likely in the thousands. A 2015 report from the SSA’s Office of the Inspector General (OIG) found that SSA paid about $31 million to more than 1,500 beneficiaries with death certificate information on the Numident, indicating around 1,500 cases of improper payments that year (OIG Congressional Testimony). This suggests an average of approximately $20,667 per case, which aligns with someone receiving benefits for about a year after death, given the average monthly benefit is around $1,900, as per Bankrate.
More recent data, such as a July 2023 SSA OIG report mentioned by WDSU, states that “almost none” of the numberholders born in 1920 or earlier, not marked as deceased (about 18.9 million entries), are currently receiving SSA payments. This indicates that while there are many entries in the database listed as alive and very old, the number actually receiving benefits is minimal.
Understanding SSA Database Entries
The confusion likely stems from misinterpreting SSA database entries. The SSA maintains over 500 million unique Social Security numbers, and some entries lack death records, meaning they are assumed alive (New York Times). However, being listed as alive does not mean they are receiving benefits. For example, FactCheck.org notes that only about 89,000 people aged 99 or older received benefits last year, far from the millions claimed.
SSA Processes to Prevent Improper Payments
The SSA has several systems in place to minimize improper payments to deceased individuals. As of September 2015, the agency automatically stops payments to people older than 115 years old, as reported by AP News. Additionally, the SSA matches its payment databases against the Numident monthly to process terminations due to death, recover overpayments, and refer fraud allegations to the OIG, as per the 2015 OIG report.
Recent Developments and Pilot Programs
The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s pilot program, announced on January 14, 2025, prevented and recovered more than $31 million in fraud and improper payments during a five-month period using SSA’s Full Death Master File (Treasury Press Release). This program projects a net benefit of over $215 million over three years, indicating significant efforts to enhance program integrity. Given the average monthly benefit of approximately $1,976 in January 2025 (SSA Snapshot), $31 million over five months would correspond to about 3,263 individuals per month, but this likely includes multiple payments to the same individual, suggesting the number of unique cases is lower.
Implications and Context
The claims by Trump and Musk may stem from a misunderstanding of SSA data, particularly the large number of entries without death records. However, CBS News explains that part of the confusion comes from the SSA’s use of COBOL, an outdated programming language, which can default missing birth dates to over 150 years ago, inflating the perceived number of very old beneficiaries. This technical issue does not reflect actual benefit recipients.
Comparative Analysis
To provide a clearer picture, consider the following table comparing the claims and actual data:
| Aspect | Claim by Trump/Musk | Actual Data (Research Suggests) |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Deceased Receiving Benefits | Millions | Likely in the thousands (e.g., 1,500 in 2015) |
| Age of Recipients | Over 100, some 150+ years old | 89,000 aged 99+ receiving benefits, mostly alive |
| SSA Measures | Implied ineffective | Automatic stops at 115, monthly checks against death records |
Conclusion
In conclusion, while there are instances of improper Social Security payments to deceased individuals, the scale is nowhere near the “millions” claimed by Trump and Musk. The evidence leans toward the number being in the thousands, with recent reports and pilot programs showing ongoing efforts to address and minimize such payments. Public discourse should rely on verified data, such as those from FactCheck.org and SSA OIG reports, to ensure accurate understanding and policy discussions.
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